Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
「Russia invade a NATO country：いつまでに？」について
現在「December 31, 2026」が 5% でリード。総取引高 $5.5M、直近24時間 $131。流動性 $62K。2026/12/31（米東部時間）締切予定。
ルール
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
「Russia invade a NATO country：いつまでに？」について
現在「December 31, 2026」が 5% でリード。総取引高 $5.5M、直近24時間 $131。流動性 $62K。2026/12/31（米東部時間）締切予定。
ルール
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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