Risk Disclosure

Prediction markets are a different kind of trading from stocks or crypto. This page explains how they work and the risks to understand before you trade, so you can decide how much to put in and how to use the tools.

Note

Trading prediction markets involves risk, including the loss of the money you trade with. Trade with an amount you are comfortable with, and consider starting small or in Sim mode.

#1How settlement works, and what you can lose

A prediction market share settles at either $1.00 or $0.00. There is no partial payout for an outcome that comes close.

This means a position can lose the full amount you paid for it if the market resolves the other way. That is true whatever the price: a share bought at $0.95 and one bought at $0.05 both settle at $0.00 if they lose. The price reflects how likely the market thinks an outcome is; it does not limit the loss if that outcome does not happen.

Trading on the Service is not covered by deposit insurance or an investor compensation scheme.

#2Things that affect your result besides the outcome

• Liquidity. Some markets trade less actively. Before a market resolves, you may not be able to sell at the price you want, or at all. A gain on paper becomes money when you sell or the market settles.
• Slippage. A market order fills against the orders on the book, which can differ from the price you saw, especially in less active markets. A limit order lets you set your price instead.
• Fees. Fills can carry fees — see Fees & Costs. They matter most for strategies that trade often.
• Timing. Markets close and settle on their own schedule. Once a market resolves, its outcome is final.

#3Displayed prices and the settlement source

The prices, charts and reference values in the Service come from third-party data feeds. They can occasionally be delayed, inaccurate or unavailable, and they are not necessarily the values a market settles on.

For example, Polymarket settles crypto Up/Down markets on a Chainlink price, which can differ from a price shown from another source — on Bitcoin, sometimes by tens of dollars.

A market's result is decided by the source named in its rules. Treat the prices the Service shows as an indication, and check each market's rules before you trade it.

#4Resolution

• Polymarket resolves markets, through its own oracle process. We do not decide outcomes and cannot appeal one on your behalf.
• Real events do not always match a market's wording exactly. A market can resolve in a way you did not expect; its resolution is final.
• Resolution can take time, sometimes well after the event, and your funds stay in the position until it does.
• Read the resolution rules before you trade. The written source decides the result.

#5Automated trading and copy trading

Automated trading and copy trading place orders for you, by the rules you set, without asking each time. That is their purpose, so it is worth setting them up with care.

• A strategy places orders exactly as configured — including at times you are not watching. Check your settings, and use the budget and loss limits the tools provide.
• Copying a trader does not reproduce their results. Your orders can fill at a different price, size or time, and a trader's past record does not predict their future trades.
• A run can stop on its own — an outage, a rejected order, an insufficient balance, a revoked permission — or keep going until you stop it. Check its status on the page rather than assuming it.
• Sim mode is a practice tool, not a forecast. It places no real orders and does not fully model slippage, queue position or partial fills, so real results can differ from simulated ones.

#6Technology

• The Service is in beta. It may contain defects, be temporarily unavailable, or show incorrect information.
• Smart contracts. Your funds interact with smart contracts on Polygon. A defect or exploit in a contract could cause a loss.
• Blockchain. Network congestion or an outage can delay a transaction, including one that closes a position.
• Third parties. The Service relies on Polymarket, Privy and other data and infrastructure providers; if one fails, the parts of the Service that depend on it may not work.
• Keep access to your login. If you lose access to your login method and have not exported your wallet keys, your funds cannot be recovered. See Support.

#7Legal and regulatory

Prediction markets are restricted in some jurisdictions, and the rules continue to change.

• You are responsible for checking that you may lawfully use the Service where you are.
• Order placement is disabled in some countries and regions, based on your approximate network location and your device's time zone. The check runs when you submit an order or start a copy or automated run. It is not a compliance control — see section 2 of the Terms of Service.
• Rules can change while you hold a position, and access can be withdrawn.
• You are responsible for your own taxes. We do not provide tax reports or tax advice.

#8Not advice

Nothing in the Service is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to trade.

Leaderboards, trader statistics, analytics, market summaries and strategy templates are for information only; some are generated automatically and may be inaccurate. Past performance shown anywhere in the Service, including a trader's record and any simulated result, does not predict future results.

If you are unsure, consider independent advice from a qualified professional where you live.