
December 31, 2026

December 31, 2026
Pick a market first
Choose a market from the list on the left to see its order book and place a trade.
Pick a market on the left to see this.
December 31, 2027 leads at 17% (19% a week ago). $65K traded in total, $58 in the last 24 hours. Liquidity $21K. Scheduled to close 12/31/2027 (ET).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
December 31, 2027 leads at 17% (19% a week ago). $65K traded in total, $58 in the last 24 hours. Liquidity $21K. Scheduled to close 12/31/2027 (ET).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.