Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
关于「俄罗斯入侵北约国家：何时之前？」
目前「December 31, 2026」领先，概率 5%。总成交 $5.5M，近 24 小时 $131。流动性 $62K。预计于 2026/12/31（美东时间）截止。
规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
关于「俄罗斯入侵北约国家：何时之前？」
目前「December 31, 2026」领先，概率 5%。总成交 $5.5M，近 24 小时 $131。流动性 $62K。预计于 2026/12/31（美东时间）截止。
规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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